“Guangdong Venture Investment Forum” Held –Distinguished Economist Prof. Ba Shusong Explains Macro-financial Policy Trend in 2011
<p>On Mar. 20th, co-sponsored by SYSBS and SYS PE Union，“Guangdong Venture Investment Forum” was successfully presented in the SYSBS International Conference Hall by EDP Education Center of SYSBS, EMBA Education Center of SYSBS and Zhong Da Capital Co. The notable economist Prof. Ba Shusong, Chief Economist of the China Banking Association, was invited to deliver the lecture titled “China Macro-financial Policy Trend in 2011”. Prof. Xu Yong, Vice Dean of SYSBS, presided over the forum.</p>
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<p>Prof. Xu Yong Presiding over the Forum.</p>
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<p>Prof. Ba Shusong Delivering the Lecture</p>
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<p>All Seats Occupied</p>
<p>In the lecture, Prof. Ba put a profound interpretation on current complicated internal and external economic environment in China and gave suggestions to executives on how to manage macroeconomic risks in corporate operation. Prof. Ba pointed out that, in the complicated internal and external economic environment, China’s economic cyclical changes in 2010 took a typical feature of short-term and high-frequency. The economic cyclical changes may preserve such feature in 2011. In response to the base effect and policy regulation the economic growth rate declined in the first two quarters of the year and in the second half year it would come to a mild upswing, from which the short-term feature can be observed.</p>
<p>Prof. Ba said that the short-term and high-frequency trend in economic cycle is the consequence of interplay between government policies and real economy performance. That is, the strong real economy performance in the fourth quarter of 2010 set stage for issuing the comparatively strict macro policy in 2011 to restrain inflation. In 2011 the monetary policy put emphasis on stability and normality and several strict monetary policies were issued, including increasing interest rate. As a result the recent temporary hiking inflation will stably fall back in 2011. As to fiscal policy, he advocated a proactive fiscal policy to promote economic restructuring and moreover the fine 2010 financial revenue could provide a quarantined bankroll for revising fiscal policy.</p>
<p>As for whether interest rate will continue to increase, Prof. Ba believed that it depended on three indicators: GDP growth rate, inflation expectation and weighted deposit rate. From the perspective of choice of time point, the acceleration of economy development and the hike of inflation are more likely to be the factors that lead to the increasing of interest rate. On the other hand, taking the increasing degree of interest rate into consideration, Prof. Ba considered the weighted negative deposit interest rates level as a possible criterion.</p>
<p>In the lecture, the hall was packed out in a lively atmosphere. Over 600 people attended the forum, including trainees of SYS Equity Investment Seminar, Real Estate Seminar and Chinese Venture Investment Seminar. Among them also came alumni-entrepreneurs of SYSBS and EMBA students.</p>
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